Sheila Dikshit as prime minister. How does it sound? Odd, alright. Dikshit as replacement for Manmohan Singh would sound much better. Singh has done little justice to the office of the prime minister and if he hangs around till 2014 general elections, he will be a huge liability for the UPA as well as the Congress. It is not clear whether the party has started looking for a different leader, but if it has, then Dikshit is not a bad bet.
Before we get into the story, here’s a disclaimer. Neither the Congress nor the UPA has given any hint that a change at the top is on the cards. But it appears inevitable. The Congress has to offer a new leader to the electorate. It has to be someone who is less reticent and more proactive in administrative matters, someone who is comfortable with people and the media and someone who looks comfortable as a leader; at least not one who looks like a disinterested bureaucrat put in a job he does not enjoy.
Manmohan has outlived his utility for the party and the country. His honest image is no more an asset for either; he comes across as an incapable leader not in control of anything. He no more serves as the bridge between the party and the government. So he has to go at some point before the elections. So who would replace him?
For the outsider, Pranab Mukherjee should be the obvious choice. He is the best among the current crop of senior Congress leaders. He is competent, has credibility, has the experience to run a government and most importantly, he is a politician of standing, respected across the political spectrum. With him at the helm, the Congress could find less bitterness among voters for the dynasty. It could result in some votes.
But he is the party’s crisis man, its chief trouble-shooter. The Congress cannot afford to lose his services in the party. Moreover, he is perceived as a threat to the party’s top leadership. He could work to diminish the influence of the Gandhi family and its loyalists and cause a split in the party if the situation came to that. A strong prime minister does not suit the party’s top leadership.
AK Antony could be another choice. He is safe and has the right credentials to lead a government. But he is in the Manmohan Singh mould — honest but not effective with decision-making. He is also not strong in controlling colleagues. He is equally poor in communicating ideas and is unlikely to impress the media. The party won’t risk replacing one Manmohan with another.
Many in the commetriat circles feel Manmohan Singh is keeping the seat warm for Rahul Gandhi. The Congress general secretary at the top job would help end the confusion between the party and the government, which are pulling in different directions at the moment. He could give coherence to the party’s ideology and help synchronise it with the government’s policies. Moreover, as the single power centre, he could help contain divisive tendencies within the party.
But he has shown no inclination to take any serious responsibility so far. Not much is known about his ideology or take on economic issues. He has just lost the high profile UP elections miserably and done nothing much to improve the party’s sagging fortune elsewhere in the country. The party, if at all it has plans to put him in the saddle, won’t do it at this point.
The party’s organisational structure at the lower levels has all but collapsed, it has no strong leaders to lead the party’s revival in states and the Central leadership is too confused about a strategy on the way forward. The performance of the UPA government has been abysmal. It is mired in big ticket corruption charges, is indecisive on policy matters, inspires no confidence in governance and offers little reason as to why it should be voted back to power.
The Congress is already staring at defeat though the elections are way off. The party, protective as it is about the first family, won’t make him carry the guilt of leading the party to a defeat.
That makes Sheila Dikshit, the Chief Minister of Delhi, a good choice. She has been one of the most stable leaders for the party what with a hat-trick of victories in Delhi. She is known to be good at governance — comparable to BJP’s Narendra Modi — and a brilliant political strategist. She has managed controversies involving her government well and is respected in the party circles. She is at communicating and is adept at handling the media. What works for her is that she is close to party chief Sonia Gandhi and is not perceived as a threat to the top leadership.
If the party is looking for a replacement for Manmohan, she fits the bill. But is it looking at the 2014 elections yet?
—Source: Firstpost