Young turk — Alpesh Thakor, Can he bring lady luck to Rahul?

By Abdul hafiz lakhani:

After weeks of hardball negotiation, burning the midnight oil, Alpesh Thakor joined Congress in the presence of Congress scion Rahul Gandhi yesterday but big question is that will he able to change fortune of party?

In 42-year-old Thakor, Congress sees a young turk whose sway over his community’s voters alone can help turn the tide on at least 40 seats in north and central Gujarat alone.. Leading once a little known Gujarat Kshatriya Thakor Sena (GKTS), Alpesh Thakor has set up block and assembly level units in over 120 assembly segments out of 182 constituencies in the state.

The Congress party is eyeing a major swing in its favour in these regions as party president Bharatsinh Solanki, a thakor himself, an Alpesh are expected to consolidate thakor votes on these seats.

Political observers say that the thakor community is concentrated in around 40-45 seats in districts like Sabarkantha, Banaskantha, Anand, Kheda, Mehsana, Patan, Gandhinagar and Aravalli.

“These are seats where the thakor community makes up 25%-35% of total votes. In many of these, thakors voters number from 50,000 to more than 1 lakh out of the 2-2.5 lakh voters. These are huge numbers and if they vote in favour of a leader of their community, their numbers can turn electoral fortunes,” said a senior Congress leader.

Although the Thakor community has traditionally been a Congress votebank, after the 2002 riots, Narendra Modi had significant success in consolidating OBC votes into Hindu votes.

After Modi became PM, caste politics has reared up in Gujarat, with patidars led by Hardik Patel starting an agitation for OBC quota in 2015, prompting Alpesh Thakor to launch a counter-agitation to ‘protect their reservation quota’. Thakor has a strong-base in his community through his organization, the Gujarat Thakor Kshatriya Sena, formed five years ago to fight liquor addiction in the community.

Alpesh Thakor’s close aide and co-convener of the OBC, SC,ST Ekta Manch, Mukesh Bharwad, said that it is not just thakors alone. Alpesh has the potential to influence 70 seats due to his clout with OBCs and other reserved castes. “We have a strong cadre for booth management on at least 70 seats.”

Gaurang Jani, a city-based sociologist, said that the SCs (7%), STs (15%) and OBCs (40%) make up 63% of the total population in Gujarat. “Thakor’s inclusion will heavily impact elections in north Gujarat, which has traditionally been a BJP bastion,” says Jani.

It is a shot in the arm for the Congress as both Modi and Shah are fighting to signal their absolute dominance over their home state after 22 years of uninterrupted BJP rule. The party has pulled out all the stops in Gujarat. Modi is visiting every week with fresh SOPs on each trip and dramatic denouncements of the Gandhi family and their “hatred for Gujarat and Gujaratis”. Yogi Aditynath, newbie Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, is also on a non-stop whistle-stop tour with speeches on “Love Jihad” and the “terror threat posed by the Rohingya refugees”. Adityanath is attracting large crowds on this part of his makeover as the pan-Indian “Hindu Hriday Samrat” (emperor of Hindu hearts).

The BJP has ruled Gujarat for 22 years. Yet, sensing the acuteness of the electoral challenge that it is confronted with for the Assembly polls due in December, the saffron party isn’t content to seek the popular mandate on the strength of its government’s performance, and is keen to take out an insurance policy by stoking communal politics. This is the meaning of despatching the ace communalist UP CM to Gujarat for the campaign. This sharpening of the communal divide has gone alongside raising the vacuous issue of Gujarat’s pride (imagined wrongs done to eminent Gujaratis such as Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, Morarji Desai and former Congress CM Madhavsinh Solanki) by Prime Minister Modi himself in a campaign speech on Monday, and pandering to the electorate at the last minute by distributing freebies, thanks to the enlarged time window opened by the Election Commission.

Without a doubt, Modi is the BJP’s biggest strength, the proverbial brahmastra. Moreover, the campaign is yet to start and he is undeniably a marathon performer with physical and mental stamina few leaders can match.But it is to be seen if his capacity to carry the party to the finishing line overcomes hurdles which have unexpectedly cropped up and prevent the sixth consecutive victory since 1995.

The BJP’s biggest worries are six-pronged and continuing proxy character of state leaders, including those in government, is most telling. Alienation of Patels and Dalits add to disenchantment among farmers, traders and small businesses and are forcing Modi to bend his back more than in 2012. Additionally, increased confidence of the Congress, particularly vice president, Rahul Gandhi, and the palpable response, is another reason for unease.

Congress is banking, on what it senses, nascent anti-incumbency sentiment against BJP. But while middle-level and senior leaders have been galvanised into action – even appearing united – the party’s principal weakness is the withering away of the party network in almost three decades it has been out of power. Elections, especially when margins are tight, are often turned around by foot-soldiers and the party lacks them.

Moreover, absence of a chief ministerial face can make a difference unless anti-BJP sentiment reaches such levels that people just wish to see its back. Yet, there is no denying the party’s defeatism of 2012, when it virtually did not campaign, is in the past.

The BJP would worry with apparently receding Hindutva wave in the wake of economic distress. Moreover, there are signs of caste identity prevailing over religious identity. Alpesh Thakore’s decision to align with Congress indicates a social churn but has capacity to fork out old contradictions between the Patidars and OBCs.

The Congress is also aware that in a state often called the laboratory for Hindutva, it has carried the Albatross of being considered a pro-Muslim party. Rahul Gandhi’s temple visits are aimed to counter this but his politics cannot match Modi’s emotionalism at religious places.

The caste matrix is still crystallising and would greatly determine the eventual outcome. The verdict would be factored too by two minor players — AAP and NCP. It remains to be seen if the former fields candidates from BJP strongholds or where Congress is strong. Similarly, will the latter put up Patel candidates from those seats where Congress nominees too are from the same caste? This election will keep everyone riveted and turnout will play a significant part. Apathy towards polls will dampen BJP’s prospects. Thereby, like always, Modi will campaign for people to turnout in large numbers