The Shangri-La Dialogue is held annually in Singapore by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), with the three-day summit adjourning on 1 June. This regional security summit was the largest to date with some 450 delegates attending. It was also the feistiest on record as security tensions in Asia begin to boil over.
In the same week as Chinese fighters harassed Japanese military aircraft at close range over the East China Sea, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe kicked off the event with his keynote speech. Abe promised Japan would play a more active role in the region, even as he seeks to reshape his country’s historic pacifist stance.
“Japan intends to play an even greater and more proactive role than it has until now in making peace in Asia and the world something more certain,” he stated. Abe urged countries to respect the rule of law, and without naming China, he implied the latter was failing to do so. Japan has been cementing closer relations with Australia and India.
China retorted sharply to perceptions Japan and the US were ganging up against it. Fu Ying, chairwoman of the National People’s Congress’ Foreign Affairs Committee and with a reputation of being an ‘iron lady’, headed a bevy of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers at the Singapore conference.
Fu did not mince her words. She criticized Abe for producing a “myth’ about China “posing a threat to Japan”. China has long harangued Japan for using the ‘China threat’ as a pretext for improving its military. Additionally, Fu blamed the Philippines for “unilateral provocation to the status quo” during the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff.
In the face of unsettling Chinese actions, there is patent concern among many Asian countries that the USA is fading in its commitment to the region. This is a serious worry to countries like the Philippines that are locked in maritime disputes with China.
Vietnam, once a bitter rival of the USA, now welcomes American involvement too. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung called for a “stronger voice” from the US. Several days earlier, a Vietnamese fishing boat sank after a Chinese vessel collided with it in a standoff over a Chinese deep-sea oil rig in the South China Sea.
Meanwhile, President Barack Obama had just proclaimed during a West Point graduation ceremony speech that the armed forces cannot be the “primary component of our leadership” and that not every problem “has a military solution”. Obama is sending mixed messages. Obama also says the USA is “rebalancing” to the Asia-Pacific region, and in his visit to Japan in April he promised the Senkaku Islands were covered by “ironclad” US-Japan treaty obligations.
President Vladimir Putin, as well as President Xi Jinping, are cognizant of Obama’s strategic indecisiveness. Indeed, many connect the US leader’s dillydallying over Syria as an open invitation for Russia to take advantage in the Crimea and Ukraine.
The USA’s primary security concern in the region remains the Korean Peninsula, with the US Army’s 2nd Infantry Division commander, Major General Thomas Vandal, telling ANI: “As part of the strategic shift to the Pacific, we’ve seen a corresponding effect on our readiness here on the Korean Peninsula. We as a division are fully funded to maintain our readiness.”
The USA has 38,000 troops stationed in Japan and more than 28,500 in South Korea. However, these cannot hope to even begin counteracting 1.58 million PLA personnel. The fact is that shifting a few naval vessels, and modernizing some military equipment, does little to counter China’s growing regional might. The only way forward for the USA is to expand and strengthen a network of regional allies.
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel led the US delegation at the Shangri-La Dialogue. In previous years the USA has been mild in its criticism of China, but 2014 marked a departure. Referring to international freedom of navigation in the air and on the seas, Hagel warned Washington “will not look the other way when fundamental principles of the international order are being challenged”. Hagel emphasized Washington’s pivot was “a reality”, not a promise.
Hagel pointed fingers on Saturday, saying, “China has undertaken destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea.” Yet, how is the USA going to meat on the bones of its words? It is one thing to admonish China, but the political administration has shown little inclination to do anything else. It was a surprise to many that the Department of Justice took the recent and unprecedented step of indicting five PLA figures accused of cyber-espionage.
Obama established a “red line” over Syria – and failed to follow up – but he has failed to delineate one in the East or South China Seas. How serious a misdemeanor would China have to commit before the USA militarily committed assets? The USA under Obama has proved repeatedly risk averse, and this is one reason China has repeatedly asserted itself.
China has discerned this serious chink in American foreign policy and commitment. Minister of Defense Chang Wanquan told Hagel in Beijing in April that his country would make “no compromise, no concessions” in disputes with Japan and the Philippines. “The Chinese military can assemble as soon as summoned, fight any battle and win,” the general added.
Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong, the PLA’s deputy chief of general staff, accused the USA and Japan of a “duet act” at the Shangri-La Dialogue. He said such strong comments were “unacceptable”. Wang told Chinese media that Hagel’s speech was “full of hegemony” and destabilizing threats. “They took the advantage of speaking first…and staged provocative actions and challenges against China,” he bemoaned.
Wang claimed, “China has never taken the first step to provoke troubles. China has only been forced to respond to the provocative actions by other parties.” This is typical Chinese bluster that refuses to acknowledge any responsibility for growing regional tensions.
Furthermore, ASEAN has repeatedly shown itself impotent to even name China as a source of instability in the South China Sea, let alone offer a solution. The best it has done so far is air a proposed code of conduct to handle maritime disputes.
Neighbors are truly concerned at China’s nebulous maritime claims based on “historical right” rather than legal precedent. This is why Xi regularly emphasizes international ‘norms’ rather than ‘law’. A norm is unenforceable compared to a law, plus it does not brook international arbitration. It is plain to see why this approach suits China.
It seems this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue turned into something of a monologue, with China trading barbs with Japan and the USA. The Asia-Pacific region has become something of an ideological battleground, with each side trying to build a coalition of support.
China, mindful of Japan’s bloody colonial period last century, seeks to dismiss Japan’s security role in the region, while Japan is more determined than ever to have an impact. Xi wants an exclusively Asian security construct for the region, while Japan wants American involvement.
It is clear current security tensions are not just related to maritime disputes. Rather, they are a symptom of underlying tensions between two competing paradigms. China wants an increased regional and global role, while Obama teeters on a tightrope about how to allow this. As demonstrated in the Shangri-La Dialogue, the battle for Asian hearts and minds between two competing worldviews are set to continue unabated.