Fourteen political parties came together at a Convention against Communalism and for Social Harmony. Between them they represented governments in Tripura, Orissa, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and the direct opposition to existing governments in Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, Maharashtra. Not a small political force, thus, by any stretch of the imagination. And hence the fact that the political leaders, more savvy than those currently leading the BJP and definitely the Congress, had chosen to unite on the threat to secularism was by itself a clear statement of the current political environment where divisiveness and hate is being encouraged and legitimized.
There was a degree of welcome camaraderie amongst the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh ruling leadership, with both Nitish Kumar and Mulayam Singh echoing each others concerns, and vowing to work together to counter the communal forces hell bent on dividing India. The enthusiasm from the packed to capacity Talkatora Stadium was encouraging, as the audience was not the Delhi-slick but the rural poor who stayed the course to cheer their leaders and shout out their support. The leaders cautioned against too much optimism, making it clear that this was an isolated Convention and not the beginnings of a third alternative but then as CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury said later, it could be taken as (in cricketing parlance) the doosra.
The corporate owned media sought to make light of the event, just as they seek to play up Modi’s every sneeze as if it was a game changer, but this will not change the facts on the ground, or the final verdict of the electorate. In fact it will only take away from the credibility of the media that demonstrates its partisanship at every turn, and is in the front seats insofar as projecting a particular leader for the Prime Minister’s post is concerned.
There were several important political indicators from the Convention that journalists can ill afford to miss, as the ostrich like approach will only detract from their electoral prognosis. First and foremost it is clear that there is tough resistance to the BJP’s efforts to gain power from most of the electorally important states. And that while some might crumble, in the final analysis Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Orissa will continue to provide a certain resistance to the communal intent and design at this stage. Also Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu might not be principally opposed to Narendra Modi and his ilk, but will definitely not embrace him till the polls are cast. Opportunism in her case could determine the post poll scenario but the fact remains that the BJP that does not have a presence in Tamil Nadu will not be able to gain an entry in direct electoral terms. In an election where every seat counts this is going to be significant. The presence of Prafulla Mahanta and Deve Gowda on the platform also made it clear that the same logic will apply to Assam and Karnataka at least insofar as the opposition is concerned.
Two, the Nationalist Congress Party sensing the writing on the wall is opening all doors to prevent a BJP climb to power. Strongman Sharad Yadav is not going to embrace Modi, for reasons of ego if not principles, and allowed his Man Friday D.P.Tripathi to attend the Convention although their Congress ally was kept out. Clearly the NCP wants a say in the outcome in case the regional parties form the government, and hence the opportunistic display of concern for secularism at this stage.
Three, the Left remains a coalescing force despite its reduced numbers, as it inspires levels of trust amongst the regional groups that others do not have. The Left parties thus, can claim a fair share of the credit in roping in Bihar leader Nitish Kumar into the loose alliance, and thereby consolidating the opposition to the BJP and the Congress. Interestingly, Jayalalitha has clearly decided to go along with the Left in a pre-poll alliance (perhaps the only one for her and them) and while this might not amount to much in terms of electoral gains in Tamil Nadu, it has at least ensured that she keeps a safe distance from Narendra Modi till the elections are over.
And four, the canny regional leaders who are wedded to the ground as it were have come together not because of love and affection, but because they have realized that the issue in the coming elections will be secularism and not development as a stand alone entity. In fact, leaders like Nitish Kumar made it clear in their speeches that while development and growth was desired, the electorate in 2014 would have to decide what kind of development it wanted: for the corporates and the few, or all inclusive for all. And this remains the real issue, how can there be development when people are made insecure, and when it is demonstrated over and over again that the development model remains exclusive and not inclusive?
It is imperative to ensure that the secular foundation of the Indian Republic is nurtured and protected, and not dealt blows from which it is finding it increasingly difficult to recover. The Indian Constitution, a far-reaching document, has ensured that every single Indian citizen has the same rights and the same duties as the other and that no one can be discriminated against on the grounds of caste, creed, religion, gender. We are a secular, socialist, democratic Republic and one finds it difficult to understand those who scoff at the Preamble of the Constitution by insisting that the words secular and socialist are redundant. Perhaps redundant in practice given the kind of political parties calling the shots these days, but certainly not redundant insofar as the desired objectives are concerned.