Mumbai, June 16: Doctors warn swine flu cases may escalate when the mercury dips during monsoon..
The rains may not bring good news this year. Doctors warn of a spurt in the number of cases of swine flu during monsoon.
As the number of swine flu patients in the country climbed to more than 20 over the weekend, the Union health ministry warned of a sudden escalation in the disease in the next couple of months.
Doctors from across the country say the menace of the H1N1 virus is less in the scorching summer, as it cannot survive in temperatures above 40-45 degrees.
But as the temperature dips with the rains, there is a probability of the virus spreading faster.
Moreover, as summer ends, all those vacationing abroad will rush back home, and many among them could be carriers of the virus.
“The risk of infection may increase during the change of season,” said Dr Atul Gogia of Sir Ganga Ram Hospital in central Delhi.
Though there is no specific age group that is at risk, doctors say people prone to allergies are more susceptible to catch the flu.
“When the mercury dips, the virus in the donor (the person infected) becomes stronger and more infectious.
Then, the recipient (person who comes in contact with someone who is already infected) is more at risk,” said the honorary secretaryof the Indian Medical Associa-tion, Dr Dharm Prakash.
India better off
Some doctors feel India is less at risk than the West, as the virus spreads faster in colder climes.
Dr D V Barathe, medical superintendent, Naidu Hospital of Infectious Diseases, Pune, said, “The virus spreads faster in lower temperatures and as India is a hot country, we are relatively safe here.
There are chances that during monsoon the virus will spread, but its effect will be minimal.”
Fearing the worst
The risk of a swine flu pandemic during monsoon could be higher in Mumbai, as the city has a long rainy season.
Admitting that the upcoming season may change the swine flu scenario, the BMC’s Executive Health Officer
Dr Jayraj Thanekar said high humidity and low temperature could worsen the situation.
“We do not know what to anticipate, but the monsoon may prove conducive for the virus. There could be new issues to deal with,” said Dr Thanekar.
Maharashtra, which had been screening only international passengers, has stepped up vigilance.
It is distributing Tamiflu, the anti-viral drug being used to treat swine flu, to all district offices.
“Since there have been confirmed cases in other parts of the country we cannot take the risk of ignoring possible cross-border infections,” said Dr Uddhav Gawande, deputy director, state health services, Maharashtra. Gawande said more vigilant measures were being taken keeping the monsoons in mind.
With inputs from Nupur Singh in Delhi, Alisha Coelho in Mumbai and Debarati Palit in Pune
Did you know?
> Scientists believe warm temperatures melt the H1N1 virus’ outer coating, making it inactive.
> Swine flu is completely curable if diagnosed on time and it does not infect the same person twice
–Courtesy: Mid-Day