Lisbon, October 03: Portuguese Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates won a second term in a general election on Sunday but, as expected, his centre-left party fell short of an absolute majority in parliament.
Socrates, 52, won about 38 percent of the vote, according to exit polls and initial results, cutting his share of the ballot from 45 percent in 2005, which had given him a solid absolute majority in parliament during his first term.
The results, in line with opinion polls taken ahead of the election, set out a potentially tough task for Socrates as he considers whether to enter into coalition or rule in a minority government.
“Socrates is cool, Socrates is cool!” supporters of the avid runner shouted at Socialist Party headquarters.
The centre-right Social Democrats under Manuela Ferreira Leite, 68, who had campaigned for vigorous public sector spending cuts, gained around 29 percent of the vote, virtually unchanged from 2005.
“The results gave the Socialist Party victory,” said Ferreira Leite, the first female leader of a major Portuguese party.
Socrates is most likely to opt to rule on his own, seeking support on a case-by-case basis on different legislation, analysts said.
“After an absolute majority, this is the second best scenario for the Socialists, as, according to exit polls, they would be able to negotiate approval of their bills with any other party on an individual basis,” political scientist Pedro Magalhaes told Reuters.
Socrates will not only have to repair the economy after its deepest recession in decades but also rectify the long-term economic weaknesses that caused it to underperform its European partners in the past decade.
Unemployment is at 9.1 percent and rising, its highest since the 1980s.
With the deficit set to reach 5.9 percent of gross domestic product this year, the budget is likely to need spending cuts or tax hikes. Such a challenge could force the Socialists to work with the Social Democrats on issues such as public finance and the 2010 budget.
During his first term, Socrates embarked on what were considered ambitious reforms, including of public pensions and the civil service. Market-friendly reforms of this kind could be difficult to repeat with a minority.
SIC television projected the result would give the Socialists between 99 and 103 seats in the 230-seat parliament.
On other issues, such as social reform, the Socialists may turn to left-wing parties. Socrates, like the left, sees a bigger government role in the economy, with projects to create jobs.
The Left Bloc, a natural ally on the left for the Socialists, posted strong gains from the last election, rising to 10 percent support from 6.3 percent in 2005.
But analysts doubted any kind of formal coalition government was likely with either the left or the right.
“I wouldn’t expect any coalition government,” said Filipe Garcia, an economist at Informacao de Mercados Financeiros, adding that the Socialists’ victory gave their policies legitimacy.
Socrates has advocated a series of big, vote-winning infrastructure projects, such as a high-speed train link to Spain and a new Lisbon airport to boost jobs and promote robust economic growth.
This year the economy is expected to contract by up to 4 percent.
–Agencies