The peaceful transition, the first ever in the history of Afghanistan, to a unity government, led by President Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah as CEO has, to great extent, given Afghanistan a sigh of relief, following the fiercely contested elections and respite to the major stakeholders in the region.
The confrontation, before the unity government was negotiated, had threatened to erode the cohesion, integrity and stability of Afghanistan and the region.
Both President Ghani and Dr. Abdullah have demonstrated great statesmanship and the will to keep the country united and on the track of development and to achieve peace and stability and also strengthen the infant democracy.
The immediate gain from the peaceful transition is the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the United States and the allies to keep some Western troops and trainers to help Afghan security forces meet the challenges of security threatened by the Taliban-Al Qaeda terrorists after the U.S. and allied forces withdraw in another two months.
Graeme Smith, an Afghanistan senior analyst, says, “The Afghan Government cannot afford to drift, and any disunity in Kabul will affect the country’s ability to fight its battles and pay its bills”.
He continues, “Ghani and Abdullah will need to continue serving as voices of restraint as they strive to make the unity government function, and they deserve to receive international support in these efforts”.
Another analyst, Samina Ahmed, South Asia Project Director and Senior Asia Adviser opine, “While the two candidates’ power-sharing deals may be imperfect, they have also opened a conversation about revising the overly centralized presidential system. Afghanistan needs constitutional reforms to dilute some powers of the presidency and give more responsibilities to elected local officials. This would help mitigate factional tensions in the government and lower the stakes in future elections”.
Considering the critical stage at which the young democracy finds itself, the unity government has to take up the following six major tasks immediately:
1. Forging national unity: The fierce election campaign followed by the raised tempers over the alleged election frauds, especially after the second and the final phase, divided Afghans on ethnic and factional lines like never before and the threat of ethnic civil confrontation loomed large. Without the power-sharing deal, none of the two contestants, if declared elected would have enjoyed broad-based legitimacy to maintain stability and govern effectively. The two leaders must now devise a national agenda that promotes unity among all Afghans, ensure the new government makeup is inclusive, and marginalize warlords and ultra ethno-nationalists who may attempt to undermine the unity government.
2. Check corruption and improve governance: The legitimacy of the new government would be judged by the Afghans on its ability to deliver basic services. The free flow of the huge foreign aid during the last 13 years led to the large scale corruption and appropriation of funds by the politicians and officials of the Karzai administration. Last year, Afghanistan was adjudged as the world’s most corrupt nation. State institutions remain weak; and governance and development conditions are likely to further deteriorate as foreign funding is drying up. Already, the withdrawal of US and allies forces and their supply contractors and other supporting services has started resulting in lay off of Afghan workers and the job situation is worsening.
To add, the United States and other foreign donors have made it clear that future financial aid to Afghanistan will be conditioned on the government’s measures to curb corruption and improve accountability.
3. Bolstering economy: Afghanistan has three major contributors to its economy – the dry fruit production, Opium and drugs production and the foreign aid. Over the past 13 years, the Karzai Government, United States and its allies have failed to build an indigenous, sustainable economy in Afghanistan, as foreign aid and spending still account for more than 90 percent of the country’s $20 billion GDP. The economic growth last year dipped down to 3.6 percent from 14.4 percent in 2012; the Kabul government has reportedly run out of money to pay for its bills; real estate prices have declined by up to 50 percent; inflation and unemployment are soaring; and business conditions have deteriorated. The institutional reforms have to be implemented by the new government to shore up the economy, to attract foreign investment, strengthen tax and customs administration, and root out corruption. It is here that the experience of the new President, Mr. Ghani comes in as he is an international economic authority, having worked with the UN and international economic institutions.
4. Fighting the narcotics menace: Afghanistan produces about 90 percent of the total world supply of opiates. Despite the $10 billion U.S. investment and huge effort by the UK, in the past decade to combat drugs in Afghanistan has largely failed. The illicit drug economy not only provides for a quarter of the Taliban’s $400 million annual budget, but it also promotes corruption. This is likely to go further up and add to the instability at an even larger degree as foreign aid declines in coming years. The Ghani-Abdullah Government must devise a comprehensive plan that includes strengthening law enforcement institutions, pursuing aggressive eradication and interdiction efforts while motivating farmers to cultivate alternate crops. Security efforts also have to support the effort for weakening the Taliban’s influence in poppy-growing regions, and prosecuting government officials involved in the drugs business.
5. Improving security: Now that Ashraf Ghani is installed as President and Dr. Abdullah as the CEO, security should be the first order of their business as all other factors to keep Afghanistan united, democratic and stable depend on the security situation. While the Taliban failed to disrupt the election, the terrorist group remains a potent force and is readying itself for a comeback. The terrorist groups capitalized on the election stalemate and the vacuum left by withdrawing foreign troops by stepping up attacks across the country to project power and seize territory. On September 26, a large group of Taliban and foreign fighters captured a strategic district near the Afghan capital, killing 70 villagers including 15 by beheading. In the past months, the terrorist group has brought under siege four districts in southern Helmand Province, carried out suicide and spectacular attacks in Kabul and other major population centers, and has expanded its presence in previously peaceful central and northern regions of Balkh and Badakhshan.
Karzai’s efforts and U.S. overtures to negotiate peace with the Taliban have failed, mainly due to the sabotage by Pakistan. With the exit of foreign troops around the corner, the Taliban and the Haqqani Group, supported and provided by Pakistan appear to be more confident about a military victory than eager to make peace. The new government must refrain from its predecessor’s policies that have only empowered the Taliban, such as releasing militant commanders from jail who immediately joined Taliban after the release. Instead, it should focus on empowering and reforming the security and law enforcement institutions.
No doubt, the new government must address security and governance responsibilities, it cannot meet the daunting challenges alone and will require substantial foreign military and financial assistance in the years ahead. It is hoped that the Obama administration, too would not repeat the mistake of Iraq and reconsider its plan to pull out all troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016.
The abrupt exit, considering the weak Afghan Security Forces, risks undoing the gains of the past 13 years and would rather facilitate the Taliban, Haqaani group, al Qaeda and associated forces aided and abetted by Pakistan waiting to pounce upon to destabilize Afghanistan.
6. Combat Pakistan’s ill-intentions: Pakistan has never been able to digest that its handmaid government led by Omar Abdullah’s Taliban was thrown out by the U.S.-led forces in 2001, denying the strategic depth which it enjoyed against its traditional rival, India. Pakistan Army and its rogue agency ISI have protected, provided safe havens and armed and trained the anti-Afghanistan groups for carrying out attacks into Afghanistan. They saved and kept in safe custody the dreaded Bin Laden till he was hunted down by the U.S. Special Forces. They are still shielding the Taliban chief Mullah Omar and his cabinet – Taliban Shoora. In the garb of being the front state in the fight against terrorism, Pakistan duped the U.S. of billions of dollars as military and economic assistance, using these funds to train and support the terrorist group who killed thousands of Afghan and over 3000 U.S. troops.
Even today, the Pakistan Army is carrying out the much touted operation ‘Zarb-e-Azab’ against the Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which actually is to eliminate the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which is fighting against the Pakistan state, killing scores of Pakistani civilians and army men. Pakistan has not fired a single bullet against the Taliban and Haqaani Group waging war in Afghanistan and whom Pakistan is using as their most valued strategic assets.
To make any Afghanistan Government, more so the Unity Government, successful, Pakistan support to the terror groups operating against Afghanistan has to be eliminated…
The views expressed in the above article are by Mr. Gurinder Randhawa, former Special Correspondent, All India Radio, at Kabul. By Gurinder Randhawa (ANI)