n a battle that almost every poll pundit predicted to be a four-cornered contest ending with a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) has pulled off a coup, according to the CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll survey conducted by the CSDS.
The survey projects the SP to win 232-250 seats in the 403-member Assembly, thereby ensuring a clear majority for the party. Incumbent Chief Minister Mayawati’s BSP is projected to be a distant second with 65-79 seats while arch rivals Congress and BJP are expected to win 36-44 and 28-38 seats respectively.
The verdict may also be one of the biggest electoral victories in UP in the last 20 years. The survey further says the SP may also garner an impressive 34 per cent of the total polled. A vote-share of 34% means the party is ahead of its rivals by an unprecedented 10% of the total votes polled in UP. The BSP may have a vote share of 24 per cent as opposed to 30 per cent in 2007, BJP 14% as opposed to 17% in 2007 and Congress finishing a poor fourth with an estimated 12% vote share compared to 13 per cent in 2007.
The magic figure for a simple majority in the UP Assembly is 202. If the SP ends up winning 232-250 seats, the party will not only gain a simple majority in the House, but also not need any ally to run the next government in UP. As the state went into polls a month back, there was a possibility of an impending SP-Congress alliance in case of a hung assembly in the state.
——-http://www.moneycontrol.com