Washington, August 10: Scientists have created the first comprehensive visual atlas of global rainfall, which they claim shows the projections of downpour around the world over the next century.
An international team, led by the Australian National University, has created the Atlas of the Global Water Cycle based on all of the models used by India’s RK Pauchuri-headed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its report.
According to the scientists, the atlas contains 300 pages of global maps and tables showing current and projected measures of rainfall, evaporation and runoff.
The atlas illustrates the projections of each of the 20 computer models used by different countries to forecast future water cycles — data drawn upon by the IPCC in its reporting on climate change.
Lead scientist Dr Michael Roderick said, “We know that as the world warms there is likely to be more rainfall on a global average basis. But where is this increased rainfall going to occur, and which areas might get drier?
“These are simple questions to ask, but it is surprisingly hard for an individual to get an answer, whether they’re a farmer, civil engineer, teacher or citizen.
“As researchers active in the field we couldn’t answer the question with certainty. In fact, until now we have never seen a compilation of the individual rainfall predictions made by all the different climate models.”
According to the scientists, the Atlas of the Global Water Cycle would make all the current best information on modelling for future rainfall more easily available so that individuals and communities could make more informed decisions about how to plan for the century to come.
“This averaging out of all these different findings is what we tend to see in reports from the IPCC and other bodies. The atlas means that you can now see all the different models’ predictions for Australia and the world in detail, and then come to a more informed understanding.
“All these models are like crystal balls for the global water cycle — but it’s a question of whose crystal ball is the best and how do we know that? I can’t answer that question but at least by having all the information to compare people will be able to make more informed decisions,” Roderick said.
–Agencies