Bangkok, September 27: Myanmar’s junta has not yet fixed the dates for elections in 2010 but the opposition is already debating whether to boycott them and lose all influence or take part in what critics say is a sham.
The military regime forced through a new constitution in 2008 — just days after Cyclone Nargis devastated the country leaving 138,000 people dead — under which the first national polls for 20 years will be held.
But so far the conditions are acceptable only to the junta. Critics say the sole aim of the elections is to legitimise the generals’ grip on power and entrench their proxies in parliament.
Aung San Suu Kyi, the head of the National League for Democracy (NLD), the main opposition party, has just had her house arrest extended past the end of next year, keeping her out of the picture for the polls.
The NLD, which celebrates its 21st anniversary on Sunday, won the country’s last elections in 1990 but the military refused to recognise the results.
More than 2,200 other political prisoners are languishing in jail.
Rights groups meanwhile say the new constitution discriminates against ethnic minorities, many of which have faced renewed offensives by the military in recent months in an apparent attempt to crush them ahead of the polls.
But despite this context, the respected International Crisis Group said in August that the elections could still help open up the political situation in Myanmar.
“The constitution may inadvertently provide the tools to open up a little space as the post-Than Shwe era grows closer,” the Brussels-based group said in a report, referring to the 76-year-old head of the regime.
“A boycott could play into the hands of the military government, since it would not prevent the election from going ahead and would mainly deprive non-government candidates of votes, potentially narrowing the range of voices in future legislatures,” the ICG report said.
Win Min, an activist and scholar in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, said he too believed the military may have to give some ground.
“They are trying to control as much as they can but there is a little chance that they might not control 100 percent,” Win Min said.
“There are some good people in the military also. Some might not be pro-military in terms of managing the economy.”
For now, the opposition is waiting for the regime to pass laws relating to party registration and electoral campaigning.
“The regime has been clever in delaying the announcement of these laws, so that even though they give some freedom, the opposition would not have time to campaign,” Win Min said.
In Yangon, the parties are still making up their minds.
“The NLD has not decided yet. We cannot decide now,” said NLD spokesman Nyan Win, who is also Suu Kyi’s lawyer. “We need to see the election law and party registration law. We have to see their rules and regulations.”
In a surprise move, Myanmar’s second largest political party, the National Unity Party, urged the NLD not to boycott the elections. The party won 12 seats in the 1990 elections, in which the NLD won 392 seats.
In another unexpected development, the daughters of two former prime ministers, U Nu and Ba Shwe, said earlier this month that they would set up a new group called the Democratic Party.
But Sunai Phasuk, an analyst for Human Rights Watch based in Bangkok, is doubtful.
“There has been a lot of wishful thinking about a possibility of open space in Burma. The last time was in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis, but what happened at the end was the opposite,” he told AFP, using the country’s former name.
The junta allowed foreign aid into Myanmar under international pressure but swiftly closed up again.
Sunai said it was up to the people of Myanmar to decide, and that it was important for opposition parties to provide information on the standard of elections.
But he added: “I don’t see, anyhow, that elections in Burma if they happen under the current conditions will lead to any improvement.”
—Agencies