RAHUL Gandhi’s “ no alliance with thugs” statement on Saturday amplifies the Congress’s latest strategy to go for a course correction in Uttar Pradesh — especially to consolidate its Muslim votebank.
He said in Sant Kabirnagar and Varanasi the Congress wouldn’t ally with “ thugs and criminals”, thereby attempting to quash all speculations of a post- poll alliance with the Samajwadi Party ( SP) in the state.
Sources said a perception has gained momentum that the Congress could be playing second fiddle to Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP in the event of a coalition government in Lucknow.
This propaganda helped the SP emerge in poll surveys as the single- largest party. Some surveys even gave the party around 135- 140 seats in the 403- member assembly.
Muslims Strategy:
Muslims account for 22% of votes and their strategy to keep BJP Out of UP was very successful in the last 12 years, Now smaller Muslim’s parties have become the latest trend in UP and they can play a spoil sport for National parties and may help Bjp indirectly. Congress SP BSP are all coming out with packages for Muslims . Muslims can get atleast 50 or more MLA elected from among themselves and play a king maker role in another 120 seats are important.
Configuration: Mayawati has ensured that the Dalit- Muslim combination be kept in good humour. Muslims, a sizeable 22% per cent of the electorate in Uttar Pradesh, have been given 85 seats while Dalits have been given 88. In the list for 2007 polls, BSP had given the party ticket to 61 Muslims and 89 Dalits.
To lay our bets therefore, we must recall that BSP in the Kanshi Ram days used to resort to waiting and watching the prospects of the upper caste parties and then voting en- bloc at the last moment, for the Scheduled Castes to emerge as kingmakers. Openness and accountability may be cornerstones of a democratic system but the act of casting a vote and the content of a voter’s ballot are an important exception. The secret ballot is generally regarded as crucial in free and fair elections because it limits the effectiveness of intimidation. This time in UP, the real question is whether the twice- born castes and the Muslims will do a Kanshi Ram — each voting enbloc at the last moment to decide the fate of the Dalit or OBC candidates of the BJP or Congress. Imam Bukhari has already exhorted the Muslims in UP to vote en- bloc for SP. This is a smart move, because while nursing a probable SP-Congress alliance to form government, this also serves to leave it open for Congress to gather upper caste Hindu votes.
The Congress has already turned its attention to wooing the upper caste Hindus in the reserved constituencies because the BSP is expected to keep its 20 per cent Dalit vote intact anyway. It is most likely that this is happening across all constituencies, not just the reserved ones. And the BJP too would be engaged in the same game and more so, since the Banias combine well with the Brahmins and both can act through the agency of the maths strewn throughout UP. There remains, of course, the fact that unlike the solidarity of the oppressed built painstakingly by Kanshi Ram and Mayawati, the upper castes are relatively neither as homogenous an economic section, nor have they been politically moulded into any kind of party loyalty by either the Congress or the BJP. It is therefore difficult to tell their differentiated fight- or- flight responses.
After the dust has settled on election campaigns and polling proceeds, psephologists will probably turn to pondering the dark horse in the UP elections — the upper castes.
Brahmin factor:
The Congress, sources said, feared that this could lead to reverse consolidations. The Brahmins, who are not well- disposed towards the SP, may switch over to the BJP or the BSP to stop a Mulayam Singh- led government in the state.
This could also mean that a chunk of Muslim voters, who would have otherwise opted for the Congress, could be tempted to vote for the SP if they sense a SP- Congress- RLD coalition government in the state.
The possibility of a Muslim consolidation could be damning for the Congress, which has already promised a lot by way of reservation and other goodies to lure the minority community.
The Congress has been making serious bid to rope in people from the backward Muslim community in poll- bound Uttar Pradesh. Law minister Salman Khurshid has been at the forefront of this campaign, making a strong pitch for sub- categorisation of the other backward classes ( OBCs). But he got embroiled in a controversy over the issue after he promised to double the sub- quota for minorities while campaigning for his wife in Farrukhabad earlier last month.
In the poll manifesto released for Uttar Pradesh some days ago, the Congress promised the Muslims timely implementation the UPA government’s policy 4.5 per cent quota in central government jobs, PSUs and educational institutions.
The party has also mentioned of providing a sub- quota for the minorities in Uttar Pradesh as part of OBC quota in state government jobs and educational institutions commensurate to their population. The manifesto also talks about special provisions for the most backward classes.
Given the thrust the party has given to consolidate Muslim votes, the party obviously wouldn’t allow Mulayam Singh walk away with the spoils.
Hence, Rahul’s statement was pertinent: “ We are winning the elections and I will continue to work for you till my last drop of blood and sweat. Even if you give two or four seats to the Congress, we will not ally with thieves and goondas.” Asked if the Congress would join an SP- led coalition government in Lucknow if the numbers do not add up, CWC member and UP screening committee chairperson Mohan Prakash said such a possibility has been ruled out.
“ We will have the numbers to form a government,” he added.
Furthermore, the SP could be tempted to form a government with RLD and Independents without the Congress if it secured over 160 seats.
The bookies gave the SP 137- 141 and the Congress just 66- 69.