Mulayam Singh has revived his Maulana magic with Muslims emerging as Mandate 2012’s biggest story. The breeze across Rohilkhand, UP’s Muslim belt, carries the message of a minority turnaround after it deserted their post-Babri choice in 2007 and 2009.
This may be a key reason behind his optimism. It’d help him mop up votes in community hubs like Moradabad, Bareilly, Badaun, Rampur. Amid reports of similar polarization in eastern UP, Avadh and Devipatan, the minority swing could land major gains for SP.
The SP’s success in neutralizing minority anger over the “betrayal” of embracing ex-saffron mascot Kalyan Singh may help it overcome the challenge of minority outfits like the Peace Party and Ittehadul-e-Millat Council and the Rahul push. While Congress is polling minority votes where its candidate is strong as is BSP, minor outfits are spoilers who would gain at Mulayam’s expense.
It has put the BJP in strong position in many seats. A whiff of a split could cost SP dear, with Bareilly City being cited as example. SP’s brahmin Anil Sharma is strong but seems threatened by five Muslim candidates. The BJP would prefer it to turn a Hindu-Muslim election. The possibility of an H-M polarization is equally strong in Pilibhit, Badaun and Bareilly. The other scenario is the presence of Muslim nominees from SP and Congress, as in Kundarki (Moradabad) which have raised BJP hopes.
It cuts both ways for BJP. While it ensures its win in places with more Hindus, it weakens its chances in “good seats” with bloc minority voting. The possibility of a split among Muslims because of minority outfits could dent SP, but the party could hold its own because of a powerful community sentiment. The reason for minority turnaround is not clear. It is attributed to “intangible” factors like “comfort level”. The lack of Muslim leaders in BSP failed to inspire confidence while the “lack of hearing in police stations” is also cited as a reason.