According to Fitch Solutions Macro Research, in the upcoming general election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will “struggle” to win a simple majority and the opposition Congress party has a “fair chance” at forming a government with support from regional allies.
In the lower house of the parliament, neither of the country’s main national parties is likely to get a majority, the affiliate of Fitch Ratings said. In this case, both the national parties will have to try and cobble together a coalition with regional parties at a time when the ruling BJP has disagreements with many large “potential kingmaker parties,” Fitch Solutions said.
In its report, the Fitch stated that “We at Fitch Solutions are opposing the overwhelming consensus at this time that the BJP will most likely form the next government after the upcoming elections. The Congress party has a fair chance of leading a coalition government.”
The report added that the recent deadly attack in Kashmir’s Pulwama in which over 40 CRPF personnel died allows the ruling party to “drum up nationalistic sentiment and to rally the electorate behind the BJP.”
The report also stated that the recent populist spending efforts of the BJP, including a farmer income support program, will have a “minimal effect” on swinging voters to its side.
The BJP lost the three important states in the ‘Hindi heartland,’ which boosted the already resurgent Congress and energised the opposition camp in December last year. Many polls have shown declining support for PM Modi and BJP.
A recent India Today poll predicted the ruling NDA might win 237 seats and could fall short of the majority mark in the 543-seat parliament, down from the 336 seats the grouping won in the 2014 election.