Ahmedabad: When, in early December, this correspondent started his journey to
Ahmedabad, the upper class passengers of Delhi-Ahmedabad Rajdhani Express were talking
regarding a sure win for Modi in the upcoming assembly elections with a rider that if Modi
manages a landslide then his claim to prime minister’s job after 2014 election will be strong.
In their opinion opposition was no match to Modi. In such a scenario, according to them,
Modi must be hoping to better his 2007 tally of 117 seats out of the total 182 by a huge
margin or for that matter even beat the record of 148 seats that was won by the Congress
when it was led by Madhavsingh Solanki in 1985. After a fortnight it seems the incumbent
chief minister is fighting the toughest electoral battle of his political life.
In 2007 assembly elections out of the total 182 seats, BJP garnered 117, the Congress secured
59 and other parties got 6 seats.
This time overall electoral campaign remained very dull with posters, banners from either
sides barely at sight; very few vehicles doing round and very few corner meetings being
organised.This phenomenon was interpreted as sign of over confidence of BJP and defeatist
tendency in Congress but first phase of polling changed the scenario. Over 70 percent polling
made analysts suspicious. Are people looking for a change? Is Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat
Parivatan Party has dented Patel votes of BJP? Or people came out to vote for Modi to make
him the prime minister? Many such question doing round with Modi losing time to play
a communal card in an election campaign otherwise fought on the issue of development.
Tomorrow’s polling may change the whole saffron story built with utmost care though even very optimistic analysts are yet to announce a possible defeat for Modi. Maximum they are hoping is a narrow win for Modi.
Mukul Sinha, who fought incumbent government on Godhra incident and on the subsequent genocide issue in Nanavati Commission and outside and himself fighting this election from Sabarmati constituency as a candidate of New Socialist Movement, says that Modi will surely lose 20 odd seats in this election if not more. Dr. Shakeel Ahmed of Association for Protection of Civil Rights corroborates.
The first phase of election with record breaking voters turn out have given congress a great hope which they have already demonstrated by claiming at least 44-50 seats in this phase. BJP is still in a brain storming process to get some real count in this phase. This indicates many things to be seen on 20th December, the date for counting.
The first phase of the electoral battle took place on December 13 in 87 seats across 15 districts belonging to Saurashtra, South Gujarat and four tehsils of western Ahmedabad.While the BJP has fielded candidates in all the 87 constituencies, the Congress contested in 84 and Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) in 83 seats.
The polling in the second phase of the elections tomorrow will witness 1,98,99,501 voters deciding the fate of 820 candidates who are in the fray for 95 seats spread in central and north Gujarat, Ahmedabad city and Kutch district. Apart from 284 independent candidates BJP is contesting on all 95 seats going to the poll in this phase, whereas Congress has fielded 92,and Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) is contesting on 84 seats.
The effect of Leuva Patels on 46 seats and Kadva Patel on 37 seats has given Keshubhai leverage. The large turnout of voters in the first phase clearly indicates that the Patels have decided to take the centre stage and push for a Patel as chief minister which Modi is not. Muslims too have voted massively to show their strength. Due to the new delimitation 17 constituencies have forty thousand to one lakh Muslim voters. In 51 constituencies Muslims voters are between twenty thousand to forty thousand.
The strongest bastion of BJP is north Gujarat which is going to poll tomorrow during the second phase. But ground reports suggest that in Sabarkantha, Kutch, Patan and Banaskantha there are clear signal for change this time. According to a high level intelligence officer posted in the state, BJP under Modi is again trying to play the ‘fear card’ telling its supporters to save Modi to avoid possible backlash by next government against rioters, but effect is yet to be seen. This was the region badly effected by 2002 anti Muslim riots under Modi. The
family members of Naroda Patiya convicts came in support of Modi in the last moment and it is seen in that light. Central Gujarat is already a strong bastion of Congress so overall number game clearly depends on BJP’s performance in north Gujarat.
This situation indicates that the next power equation at state level will shoe a rope-tight situation, Mukul Sinha says. At present nobody can clearly claim any majority. Also Keshubhai factor will play a decisive role, he added.
Even 60 thousand Brahmin votes in Modi’s own constituency of Mani Nagar can swing in favour of Shweta Bhatt, a Gujarati Brahmin, many optimists say. This is a new hope for Gujarat to get rid from one man show, a Muslim activist said on the
condition of anonymity.
Shubhradeep Chakravorty
New Stream Media,
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Plot number 5, Sector 7,
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