Mumbai: Macro-economic growth data along with high valuations and political concerns over the stability of Maharashtra state government are expected to induce volatility in the key domestic equity indices during the week ahead.
Besides, market observers opined that derivatives expiry, as well as global crude oil prices and the direction of foreign fund flows, will also influence investors’ sentiments.
“Market is likely to remain range-bound next week as it awaits fresh triggers on developments around the US-China trade deal and India’s July-September GDP data due next week,” Motilal Oswal Financial Services’ Retail Research Head Siddhartha Khemka told IANS.
“The GDP data is likely to indicate whether the slowdown in the Indian economy has deepened or not.”
Lately, the Indian economy has been battered by low consumer demand on account of high goods and services tax (GST), farm distress, stagnant wages, and liquidity constraints.
This trend, which is referred to as — slowdown — has pulled down the country’s GDP growth rate to 5 percent in the first quarter of FY 2019-20 from 5.8 percent in Q4 of FY 2018-19.
According to Geojit Financial Services’ Head of Research Vinod Nair: “Market focus will be on next week Q2 GDP data which is expected to be below the 5 percent reported in Q1.”
“It is probable that the forecasted growth of 6.1 percent for FY20 is likely to be downgraded further.”
In terms of macro-data, the monthly F&O series will expire on Thursday, followed a day later by the release of second-quarter GDP numbers and the output of eight core industries (ECI).
Additionally, the country’s fiscal deficit numbers will be released during the upcoming week.
Apart from macro-data, other significant factors such as crude oil prices, and currency movement along with changes that would take place in the MSCI index on November 26 will also affect the market’s movements.
Furthermore, volatility is also expected to impact the Indian rupee which might swing between 71.40 and 72.20, from the current level of 71.71.
“Macros still look weak and 72.20 looks critical as resistance. However, the rupee is expected to appreciate a bit towards 71.40, while the overall range is expected from 71.40 to 72.20,” said Edelweiss Securities’ Head of Forex and Rates Sajal Gupta.
On technical levels, the National Stock Exchange’s Nifty50 remains in an intermediate uptrend.
“Technically, while the Nifty has corrected this week from the highs, however, the index remains in an intermediate uptrend,” said HDFC Securities’ Retail Research Head Deepak Jasani.
“Traders will need to watch if the Nifty can now hold above the immediate supports of 11,867-11,802 early next week for the bulls to retain control.”