Hyderabad, May 13: With a massive win for Jagan in Kadapa Lok Sabha by-election and an equally impressive lead for his mother Y S Vijayalakshmi (popularly known as Vijayamma) in the Pulivendula Assembly seat, two things have been decided by the voters: that Jagan is the true inheritor of the YSR legacy and that Sonia Gandhi and her son are fast losing their charm in AP.
This was a strange election where Jagan of the YSR Congress and the Congress used the name, posters and the schemes of YSR to woo the voters. For the first time, Congress party president Sonia Gandhi, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi were reduced to stamp size on election posters and banners. In real terms too, the three have been reduced to size in their appeal to voters in the YSR belt.
In fact, all along, it was an open war that Jagan fought against Sonia, accusing her of insulting his mother and forcing her to break down in one of the meetings at 10 Janpath. Despite the war becoming prestigious, Sonia and Rahul stayed away from Kadapa, the epicentre of what could become a political faultline for the Congress in the wind-swept Rayalaseema region.
Jagan’s massive win is likely to have serious implications in Delhi. For the 2014 elections to the Lok Sabha, the Congress was banking on getting the maximum number of seats from AP. According to a plan scripted by Rahul Gandhi, the Congress was planning to make it alone to the top in the 2014 general elections, hoping to break away from the arm-twisting and blackmailing brand of political manoeuvring adopted by coalition parties.
All that may go kaput, with Jagan deeply cutting into Rahul’s ambitious plans.
With Jagan asserting his power, the Congress cannot expect AP to file the ‘returns’ in 2014. The party’s numbers are bound to dwindle unless, of course, the Congress plays up the Telangana card and has a tie-up with the Telangana Rashtra Samiti of Chandrasekhara Rao.
Jagan had fought the polls on one issue: self-respect. Stories of how Sonia Gandhi humiliated Vijayamma were widely circulated in the polls. In a last ditch attempt to save YSR’s image, Vijayamma had met Sonia a few months ago. The story doing the rounds is that Vijayalakshmi had to plead and beg for permission to continue the Odarpu Yatra “for peace of YSR’s soul”. She told Sonia that Jagan had taken a vow to visit the families of those who had died after hearing news of YSR’s death. Sonia remained unmoved and reportedly snapped at her asking “so what”. That was when Vijayalakshmi broke down and Jagan decided to continue his yatra and walk out of the Congress.
Jagan was “very moved and upset” to see his mother shed tears in vain. “The family’s ties with the party high command snapped on that day. After that, it was only a matter of time before Jagan would formally break ties with the party,” said an aide.
In the present elections, the Congress tried its best to cap the Jagan wave. The party raised the BJP bogey against Jagan to attract the two lakh-odd Muslim voters in the Kadapa after the latter indicated that he would consider aligning with the saffron party if it promised ten per cent reservation for Muslims across the country.
Jagan himself has promised to provide reservation for Muslims in politics as well.
The Telugu Desam, on the other hand, had focused entirely on the issue of corruption, showcasing how Jagan has allegedly amassed huge ill-gotten wealth between 2004 and 2009 when his late father was the Chief Minister.
But Jagan was able to spike the TDP charges by pointing out that this was a clear case of the pot calling the kettle black. Chandrababu Naidu himself is referred to as the ‘CEO of corruption’ in AP and trying to call Jagan corrupt cut no ice with the voters.
Jagan also successfully raised Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin issue in his campaign for self respect. But it is a sort of déjà vu on the issue of self respect. In 1982, Sonia’s husband Rajiv Gandhi, who was then the Congress party’s general secretary, had shouted at the then AP chief minister Tantuguri Anjaiah and humiliated him before party workers at Hyderabad’s Begumpet airport for organising a grand reception .
Even as Rajiv Gandhi was fuming mad and almost screaming, Anjaiah, a Dalit, was trying his best to please him. That was when Rajiv Gandhi snapped at him and called him a “buffoon”.
Days later, Indira Gandhi sacked Anjaiah. A very honest and innocent Congress worker, he demitted office in tears saying: “I came by the grace of Madam (Indira), I am going under her orders. I don’t know why I came and why I am going.”
The deep “insult” and a scar on the self-respect of Telugus was exploited to the hilt by N.T. Rama Rao soon launched the Telugu Desam Party to protect the “atmagauravam” (self-respect) of Telugus. The rest, as it is commonly said, is history.
What next in AP? Will Jagan upset the Kiran Kumar Congress ministry?
Not likely immediately. He will wait and watch every move of the Congress even as the party’s numbers start dwindling. Moreover, if Jagan steps in, he will directly run into the Telangana storm. So, in all likelihood, he will wait till 2014.
Will more MLAs join Jagan?
Yes, his massive will win will result in many Congress MLAs jumping the political fence to YSR Congress.
Will the Congress party split?
Yes, most likely. YSR loyalists in the Congress may join YSR Congress of Jagan.
What will Congress do?
1. It will tighten the screws on Jagan with a series of I-T cases.
2. The party will raise the Telangana flag, hoping for a tie-up with the TRS. In that case, what will happen with the BJP which has strongly supported the TRS on the Telangana issue? In all probabilities, KCR may sail with the Congress and dump the BJP. In that case, Jagan may seek the help of the BJP.
3. The Congress may appoint a deputy chief minister from the Telangana region and a new Pradesh Congress Committee chief.
4. Immediately shift focus from Jagan’s victory to Telangana issue with KCR playing the fine fiddle.
Source: India Syndicate