Jerusalem, September 17: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads to the United States next week with relations between the two close allies at their shakiest in almost two decades.
But many in Israel believe a crisis will be averted, convinced that US President Barack Obama will eventually back down, chastened by his first foray into the treacherous waters of Mideast peacemaking.
Obama has been demanding for months that Israel halt all settlement building in the occupied West Bank, a freeze that would satisfy Palestinian conditions for restarting peace talks and show the Muslim world that Washington is serious about improving ties.
But the hawkish Netanyahu has offered only a temporary moratorium that would not apply to east Jerusalem or some 2,500 homes already being built — just enough to appear to be making concessions without actually giving in to Obama.
This is unwelcome friction for the Israeli government after eight years of harmony with the solidly pro-Israel administration of George W. Bush.
“Right now there are tensions,” said Zalman Shoval, a two-time Israeli ambassador to Washington and a Netanyahu advisor.
“Among other things they are a result of the attitude, or the view, that the Obama administration has of the world, which some would describe as naive or idealistic,” he told AFP.
Obama had hoped to reach a deal on the settlements before the United Nations General Assembly next week. That would have paved the way for a three-way summit of himself, Netanyahu and Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas.
With a resumption of peace talks, the Israelis and Palestinians could then push ahead to a peace agreement, something the Americans believe would go a long way to helping them solve their other problems in the region.
“I am here because President Obama … has deeply and seriously committed to comprehensive peace in the Middle East, beginning with a two-state solution,” Obama’s envoy to the region George Mitchell said this week.
But the Israelis don’t necessarily think that’s the right approach.
“The idea of achieving peace in the full term is not something that is achievable in this generation,” said Shoval, pointing to intractable issues like the division of Jerusalem or Palestinian refugees.
Instead, he says, the two sides should work toward manageable goals, like improving quality of life for the Palestinians by lifting restrictions, something Netanyahu calls “economic peace.”
“If we can manage the conflict, that may be more important than having some kind of bombastic conference like we have had before,” Shoval said.
Added to Netanyahu’s tepid feelings about a peace process are calls from his own Likud Party and members of his hard-line coalition to openly defy the United States on settlement construction.
“There are surely ways of postponing the collision, but in the final analysis, it is unavoidable, unless either the Israeli government accepts this diktat from the US president, or Obama and his advisors recognise that Jews have a right to live and settle in Judea and Samaria,” Moshe Arens, a Likud ideologue and former Netanyahu mentor, wrote in the Haaretz daily, referring to the West Bank by its biblical names.
“When it comes to our most basic rights — the right of Jews to live in the Land of Israel — the United States will defer to Israel. That is, if we stand up for our rights,” wrote Arens, a former foreign and defence minister.
At the heart of Israel’s willingness to buck Obama is the belief that, ultimately, he will realise, like others before him, that there are limits to how far he can push Israel, analysts said.
“It takes a while for an administrations to learn that the (Israeli-Palestinian) situation is complex,” said Mark Heller of Tel Aviv University. “He has been on a learning curve on how much he can get away with as far as Israel is concerned.”
Still, Netanyahu will most likely look for a compromise, given Israel’s deep dependence on the United States for diplomatic and military support.
“From Israel’s point of view we have to go part of the way, or a major part of the way, to meeting America’s demands,” said Shoval.
But some believe Netanyahu has misread Obama and the seriousness of the rift with Washington and could be in for a real surprise.
“This disagreement over the settlements is one of the worst conflicts Israel has ever had with a US administration,” said Alon Liel, a former director general of Israel’s foreign ministry.
Obama, unbeholden to the neo-conservative groups that influenced the Bush administration and emboldened by an apparent change in the attitude of the US Jewish community that Israel should be given unconditional support, might be willing to push Israel to get what he wants.
“Israel can’t afford such an ongoing conflict with the US. The Americans are not going to give up,” Liel said.
–Agencies