Encouraged by spurt in investment activities in the later half of the fiscal, Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram has said 2013-14 is likely to end with an economic growth of about 5 percent.
“There are some of the number we are looking at the moment … New investment projects have risen to 4.9 percent of GDP in October-December quarter from 3.6 percent in the previous quarter, which means investments are now beginning to take place,” he said in an interview.
With increase in investments, he said, the demand for critical inputs like cement, steel and core industries, among others would go up.
“So, to that extent, I think the growth is going to be reflected in this third and fourth quarter and it should reach that level that we are discussing … We expect growth should be around 5 percent,” Mayaram said.
Stressing his point further, he said, the World Bank in its global economic prospects has projected a growth around 4.8 percent at the market prices for India.
“At factor prices you will see (growth) higher than at market prices. So it should be more than 5 percent,” he added.
India’s economic growth had slumped to a decade’s low of five percent in 2012-13.
The economic growth (GDP) in the first quarter of 2013-14 was 4.4 percent and 4.8 percent in the second. In the first half of the fiscal, growth declined to 4.6 percent from 5.3 percent in the corresponding period a year ago.
If India is to achieve 5 percent GDP growth, the economy will have to expand by at least 5.4 percent in the second half of the current fiscal.
The advance estimates of GDP growth for the current fiscal are scheduled to be released on February 7.
In view of the overall economic downturn, the RBI had earlier lowered the economic growth forecast for the current financial year to 5 percent from 5.7 percent projected earlier. Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) had lowered the growth forecast to 5.3 percent from 6.4 percent.
In a recent forecast, IMF lowered the growth projection to 3.75 percent in 2013 from 5.7 percent estimated earlier. Similarly, ADB had lowered India’s growth forecast for 2013-14 to 4.7 percent from 6 percent earlier.
PTI