Berlin, August 30: Chancellor Angela Merkel’s rivals get what may be one of their last chances to slow her drive for a second term on Sunday, when voters in three German states go to the polls less than a month before a federal election.
Merkel and her Christian Democrats (CDU) hold a comfortable 12-15 point poll lead over their centre-left rivals, the Social Democrats (SPD), ahead of the Sept. 27 national vote and she appears to be cruising towards re-election.
But a poor performance by her conservatives in the three state votes — in Saarland, Saxony and Thuringia — could give the SPD a psychological boost for the final phase of the campaign while souring the mood in her own camp.
Any erosion in support might endanger her hopes of sealing a centre-right government next month with the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) and possibly force her into another awkward “grand coalition” with the SPD.
“The SPD will try to make the most of any gains in these regional votes,” said Peter Loesche, emeritus professor of political science at Goettingen University. “There is a risk for Merkel, although one has to say it is fairly limited.”
Conservative allies of Merkel currently govern in all three of the states that will vote on Sunday and opinion polls give each of them a lead. But in Saarland, on the French border, and Thuringia, in eastern Germany, victory is far from assured.
In both states, three-way coalitions of the SPD, far-left “Linke” and environmentalist Greens could sweep the incumbents from power if they can overcome differences and form a united leftist front.
If this happens in Saarland, a tiny state of a million people tucked into a western corner of Germany, it would be the first regional partnership of the SPD and “Linke”, or Left party, in the west of the country.
Direct descendants of former East Germany’s ruling communist party, which built the Berlin Wall, the Left party is loathed by many moderates in the SPD and cooperation with them outside the country’s eastern regions has been taboo until now.
In weekend newspaper interviews, Merkel’s SPD challenger for chancellor Frank-Walter Steinmeier left the door open to such cooperation in Saarland, but reiterated his vow not to partner with the Left at the national level after next month’s vote.
He knows that Merkel’s conservatives are likely to seize on any signs the SPD is ready to work with the Left to stir up voter fears of a dangerous “red wave”.
In turn, Merkel’s party is aware that in the longer term, closer ties between a divided German left could pose a major threat to it at both regional and national level.
–Agencies