New Delhi, October 01: Exports fell by annual 19.4 percent in August for the 11th straight month, but exporters bleeding under the global recession foresee better times around Christmas.
The country’s overseas shipments aggregated USD 14.28 billion in August this fiscal against USD 17.72 billion a year ago.
However, the decline improved by nine percentage points from 28.4 percent in July as demand for merchandise picked up in the big global markets ahead of Christmas.
“From high of over 30 percent the decline has come below 20 percent and in the months to come we will see it in single digit,” president of the Federation of Indian Exports Organisation (FIEO) A Sakthivel said.
He said Christmas sales in the US and Europe are expected to pick up, making western super stores buy more from countries like India.
Imports saw a drastic drop of 32.4 percent in August this year to USD 22.66 billion, mainly due to a sharp fall in crude oil prices to USD 70 per barrel from a peak of USD 147 per barrel last year.
As a result, the country’s trade gap narrowed to USD 8.37 billion against USD 15.78 billion in the same month in 2008, according to official data released today.
Exports during the April-August period of the current fiscal dropped 31 percent to USD 64.12 billion from USD 92.95 billion in the same period last year.
The trend may turn positive from the third quarter of 2009-10 after remaining negative since October 2008. “I think by December or even November,” Crisil Principal Economist D K Joshi said when asked when the turnaround is possible.
While the country’s oil import bill declined by 45.5 percent to USD 6.28 billion from USD 11.52 in August 2008, non-oil imports were down by 25.5 percent to USD 16.38 billion in August 2009 from USD 21.99 billion a year ago.
Oil imports in the April-August period dipped by 47.4 percent to USD 28.27 billion from 53.74 billion in the same period last year.
Non-oil imports in the first five months of this financial year declined by 25.9 percent to USD 74.02 billion from USD 99.94 billion.
The trade gap during the period was USD 38.17 billion, down from USD 60.73 billion in April-August 2008-09.
Overseas shipments grew by meagre 3.4 percent to USD 168.7 billion in 2008-09.
–Agencies