Experts say more funds needed to tackle climate change

London, August 29: British scientists have warned that UN negotiations aimed at tackling climate change are based on substantial underestimates of what it will cost to adapt to its impacts and were produced too quickly without including key sectors like energy, manufacturing and ecosystems.

The real costs of adaptation to climate change are likely to be two to three times greater than the USD 40-170 billion estimate made by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the researchers say.

In a study published by the International Institute for Environment and Development and the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, they add that costs will be even more when the full range of climate impacts on human activities is considered.

The report’s authors, including Pam Berry from the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University, say that the UNFCCC’s estimated annual global cost of adapting to climate change — which is USD 40-170 billion or the cost of about three Olympic Games per year — was produced too quickly and did not include key sectors such as energy, manufacturing, retailing, mining, tourism and ecosystems.

Berry led the work on estimating the cost of protecting ecosystems and the services they can provide for human society, which were excluded from the UNFCCC estimates. She found that this is an important source of under-estimation, and will cost over USD 350 billion, including both protected and non-protected areas.

“The costs of adaptation for ecosystems are potentially huge, the largest of any sector,” Berry said. “This is not only because of the projected future losses of species, but also because of the immense value of ecosystems for human health and well-being through the provision of food, fuel and fibre.

“The worrying feature is that our report has identified how little is known about this, the biggest elephant in the room. Even worse, uncertainty is leading to its omission from the overall figures, which will compound the underestimate,” she said.

According to the study, the UNFCCC estimate on water of USD 11 billion excluded costs of adapting to floods and assumes no costs for transferring water within nations from areas of surplus to areas of deficit. The underestimate could be substantial.

On health, it says the UNFCCC assessed only malaria, diarrhoea and malnutrition and excluded developed nations in coming to a figure of USD 5 billion. But this may cover only 30–50 per cent of the global total disease burden.

About infrastructure, the study says that in arriving at a cost of USD 8–130 billion, the UNFCCC assumed that low levels of investment in infrastructure will continue to characterise development in Africa and other relatively poor parts of the world.

–Agencies