Abu Dhabi, November 16: The Dubai Airshow opened on Sunday with more exhibitors and visitors expected than in previous years but analysts doubt it will see massive orders from oil-rich Gulf monarchies.
During the next five days, 900 exhibitors from 50 countries are due to show their wares and services, compared with 850 in 2007, and organisers also expected to attract around 50,000 visitors, up from 45,421 two years ago.
The oil-rich monarchies are weathering the global recession better than most countries, but industry experts still believe there will be few major civilian or military contracts announced at the airshow.
“This Dubai Airshow is going to be much more low key than the last few years,” said Rupinder Vig, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. “I wouldn’t expect massive orders to come through.”
Another analyst, requesting anonymity, said “the small contracts that will be made public during the show will not have an impact on stock exchanges.”
Meanwhile, French Defence Minister Herve Morin told a news conference on Sunday that negotiations over the sale of Dessault’s Rafale fighter jets to the UAE was “progressing at a good pace”.
“I find that this is progressing at a good pace. We discussed this in an atmosphere of complete confidence, saying that there is or that problem,” Morin said.
At the 2007 edition of the biennial show, European manufacturer Airbus received its largest-ever single order valued at 20 billion dollars from Dubai’s Emirates, which mainly included 70 units of the future long-haul A350.
This year, Airbus and its major rival Boeing are likely to take few if any orders.
But Allison Weller, director of show organiser F and E Aerospace, is confident about the future of the aerospace industry after a year of global financial woes.
“The past year has been a difficult time for the aerospace industry worldwide, with manufacturers, suppliers and service providers facing a bleak and uncertain future,” Weller said in a statement.
“However, with a more bullish outlook for the coming year, especially within the Middle East region, I am cautiously optimistic that the Dubai Airshow will signal a return to a healthy marketplace.”
She said the industry is “now looking to the Middle East, where aerospace suppliers and service providers have managed to weather the economic maelstrom better than elsewhere.”
Weller said she expects sales to beat the 155.5 billion dollars spent in 2007 — claimed to be the largest amount of deals ever concluded at a single event.
Most Gulf carriers are young and have made steady growth backed by wealthy governments which have enjoyed a huge windfall in oil revenues in recent years.
Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways of Abu Dhabi also use aircraft that consume less fuel.
Even so, there are questions about the extent to which regional players will help kick-start sales.
“If you look at Emirates, or the other major players in the Middle East, they all have got huge backlogs of aircraft,” Vig said. “The key question is: are they planning to keep those backlogs? Do they want to delay any deliveries?”
Emirates indicated on Wednesday it might look into increasing its intake of Airbus A380 superjumbos, of which it ordered 58 units, by taking over the orders of distressed carriers.
“We are always one of the first-movers to take advantage of the market,” chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum said.
Airbus launched on Sunday its fuel-saving “Sharklet” wingtips for the manufacturer’s A320 family to be delivered in around 2012, saying they would cut fuelburn by 3.5 percent.
On the defence side, meanwhile, no significant deals are expected to be announced, despite a rich military display.
“From what we are hearing we are not really expecting any orders on the defence side at the Dubai Airshow. Very little. You are going to see more of that happen in the first half of next year,” Vig said.
—Agencies