While Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities dominate the electoral discourse and strategy in Karnataka, it’s Dalits and Muslims who are giving sleepless nights to poll strategists of the Congress, the favourite in May 5 elections.
As per the party’s internal assessment, it is falling short by half-a-dozen seats to reach the magic figure of 113 in the 224-member Vidhan Soudha. Last-minute swing in favour of the winning party, believe poll managers, would take its tally beyond 120. But beneath this veneer of confidence lurks deep apprehension about the voting behaviour of Dalits and Muslims.
A case in point is senior Congress leader Dharam Singh’s son Ajay Singh who is contesting from Jewargi constituency of Belgaum. He finds himself pushed to the wall by BSP candidate Hussain Patel. Or, take the instance of high profile Channapatna constituency in which H D Kumaraswamy’s wife Anita is locked in a pitched battle with the lone Samajwadi Party candidate in the state, former BJP MLA C P Yogeshwar. Both belong to Vokkaliga community, which constitutes about 40 per cent of the 1.50 lakh electorate. The second and third largest communities in the constituency are Muslims and Dalits and their indecisiveness is giving jitters to all.
“The Congress candidate (Sadat Ali) is a clean man but he lives in Bangalore. Anita will also live in Bangalore but whenever we need somebody, Abdul Azeem and Zameer Ahmed (JDS leaders) are always there. We will decide on the polling day,” said Syed Siddique, a local trader.
While Muslims remain split between the Congress and the JD(S), BSP’s 176 candidates in the fray could spoil the party for many Congress candidates. Mayawati addressed rallies in Gulbarg, Bidar and Belgaum last week. Although the BSP secured just over 3 per cent votes in 2008, it had caused defeat of at least 30 Congress candidates, according to BSP’s Karnataka coordinator Ashok Siddharth.
“Last time, we had come second on five seats and lost two seats by less than 2,000 votes. This time, we are at first or second position in 15-20 constituencies and will win most of them. The Congress will lose at least 50 seats because of us,” he claimed.
Although Dalits constitute over one-fifth of the electorate in the state, Vokkaligas and Lingayats who constitute around 15 to 17 per cent, respectively, have got the largest pie in power. Out of 66 years since Independence, there were Lingayat chief ministers for 24 years, Vokkaliga CMs for around 19 years, and Brahmin CMs for 8 years.
As it is, Lingayats are the biggest community (votebank) in 73 and second biggest in 31 Assembly constituencies; Vokkaligas are the largest in 43 and second largest in 18 constituencies. In terms of their ability to influence, Dalits are the most important community in Karnataka as they constitute the biggest votebank in 58, second biggest in 65 and third biggest in 55 constituencies; for the Muslims who constitute 10 per cent of the population, the figures read 11, 25 and 33 constituencies, respectively.
Kurubas constitute the biggest in one and second biggest in 30 constituencies.
It is because of these calculations that the Congress has refrained from projecting any Vokkaliga or Lingayat leader as its face in the election. Instead, Dalit leaders like PCC chief G Parmeshwar and Mallikarjun Kharge and Kuruba leader Siddaramaiah are being indirectly projected as the CM candidate. While the party has some known Muslim faces like C K Jaffer Sharief and C M Ibrahim, they are well past their prime.
Going by past elections, Lingayat-centric politics of the BJP or Vokkaliga-centric politics of the JD(S) may not necessarily be a winning formula in 2013. In 1972 elections, the Congress (O) led by S Nijalingappa at the Centre and Veerendra Patil in the state was trounced by Indira Gandhi’s Congress (R) led by Devraj Urs in the state. Urs went on to become the architect of backward caste politics and introduced land reforms drastically undermining the clout of Vokkaligas and Lingayats. In 1980’s, the Janata Party had come to power riding on the popularity of an array of leaders from different communities like S R Bommai (Lingayat), H D Deve Gowda (Vokkaliga) and Ramkrishna Hegde (Brahmin). In 1990’s, a similar umbrella leadership had brought Janata Dal to power with Deve Gowda as CM.
Despite a Vokkaliga leader, S M Krishna, being at the helm as chief minister in 2004 elections, the Congress could not emerge as the largest party. Although Yeddyurappa did get Lingayats’ unequivocal support in 2008, the sympathy wave — for JD(S)’s perceived act of betrayal in power sharing arrangement — transcended caste and community factors. In this backdrop, the Congress’s all-inclusive approach with focus on backwards, Muslims and Dalits in this election may be a gamble worth taking in 2013.