The stage is set for the first-ever peaceful and democratic transition of government in Afghanistan with the presidential election to be held tomorrow (April 5) under the shadow of Taliban guns.
The Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan claims to have made all arrangements for the polls, with over five lakh Afghan security men on duty, supported by the U.S.-led NATO forces.
The Taliban have carried out four major suicide attacks in capital Kabul and other places during the last two weeks. Twenty policemen have been killed in two attacks, including 14 in the attack on the Interior Ministry in Shar-e-Naw, located in the heart of Kabul.
In another suicide attack on the five-starluxury hotel Kabul Serena, which is located near the presidential palace, a dozen civilians, including Reuters reporter Sardar Ahmad, his wife and two
children were killed. One head of the CID department also killed.
Afghan security and intelligence agencies have blamed Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, for the Serena Hotel attack, which was conducted through the Haqqani group of the Taliban.
Five supporters of presidential candidate Dr.Abdullah Abdullah were killed just before his rally in the northern province of Kunduz.
The Taliban have sent night letters threatening to chop the ink-stained fingers of those who exercise their franchise. Security forces in Kunduz have seized 20 tonnes of explosives packed in 450 bags.
In a fratricide incident, at least 15 Taliban commanders were killed and nine others injured in the Gelan District of Ghazni Province on April 1 by a suicide bomber to keep them from carrying out their plans to disturb the elections.
According to the National Directorate of Security (NDS), the dead commanders included several Pakistani Taliban leaders. The Taliban commanders were reportedly meeting to plan election day attacks, when one of their own men decided to turn against them, using the very tactic adopted by the Taliban.
President Hamid Karzai has completed two consecutive terms, and he cannot contest, as the Afghan Constitution does not allow an incumbent to contest for a third consecutive term.
But he has not allowed himself to be irrelevant, and has put his weight behind Zalmay Rassoul, who served in his cabinet as foreign minsiter, and was earlier the National Security Advisor. Karzai’s brother, Qayum Karzai, has also retired from ther contest in favour of Rassoul, ensuring the support of his tribe- Popalzai – which is the largest tribe in Afghanistan.
Apart from Rassoul, there remain two other leading contestants-Dr.Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani.
Dr.Abdullah had been a very close confidant of the legendary Panjshiri commander late Ahmad Shah Massoud, who was the only Mujahideen leader whom the Taliban could not subdue.
Massoud was killed by Taliban suicide bombers just two days before 9/11.
Dr. Abdullah enjoys great support among the Panjshiri and the Tajik population in the northern province. He gave a tough fight to Karzai in 2009 and prevented Karzai from registering an outright win.
Under the Afghanistan Constitution, the winner has to get at least 50 percent of the total votes polled. In case of a stalemate, a second round of voting has to be conducted between the first two leading candidates.
Dr. Abdullah refused to go for the second vote in 2009, alleging large scale rigging by Karzai. Dr Abdullah has the powerful Sia Hazara leader Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq as his running mate for vice president to ensure majority votes from the Hazara community inhabiting the Central Highlands of the
Bamiyan province.
The third leading contestant, and former World Bank technocrat, Dr.Ashraf Ghani, was also a contestant in the last elections and faired very poorly, netting just three percent votes. He was in Karzai’s first cabinet as Finance Minister and commanded respect as a good economist and was unstained by
corruption charges which are levelled against powerful Afghans.
A university chancellor, he was a public intellectual nominated for the UN Secretary General’s post.
Dr.Ghani has taken the controversial, but powerful Uzbek warlord, General Abdul Rashid Dostum as his running mate.
Dostum fought against the Taliban valiantly, but is notorious for his cruelty and human rights violations.
Dostum was in the Karzai camp in last elections and Ashraf Ghani had then labelled him as a ‘known killer’. Ghani now claims that Dostum has since ‘apologized to all those who suffered on both sides of the war.’
General Dostum’s association is sure to get a solid block of votes to Ghani from the Uzbek and Turkmen communities, who see Dostum as their unquestioned leader. But this alliance is also unlikely to fetch support from Kabul’s political elite and urban educated professionals.
The Afghan nation is greatly divided on tribal and ethnic lines, Pushtuns being the largest community, accounting for about 42 percent of the population, though, there has been no census for over 40 years.
The Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks and Turks total about 45 percent, and the remaining being Baloch, wandering Kuchis and others.
Of all the eight presidential candidates, seven are Pushtuns and Dr.Abdullah is a half Pushtun from his mother’s side. His father was a Tajik. To ensure a balance, almost all candidates have taken their number two nominees from other tribes.
Despite Taliban threats and terror looming large, Afghan voters are enthusiastic and lining up to register as voters, besides thronging political rallies.
Having tasted free and democratic functioning despite obstacles, the Afghans are likely to flock to the voting booths in large numbers.
But, the voting percentage is likely to be low tomorrow in the insurgency-affected eastern and southern provinces of Helmand, Kandahar, Pakitia, Paktika, Nangarhar and Khost etc. that border Pakistan.
Attn: Editors/News Desks: The views expressed in the above article are that of Gurinder Randhawa, former Correspondent All India Radio in Afghanistan. (ANI)