New Delhi: A report published in medium.com said that the Indian National Congress led by Rahul Gandhi could win as many 213 seats with 39% vote share. It said that the BJP’s vote share may remain 31%, same as what the party secured in 2014.
Quoting an unnamed British research group, the website said that 160 seats with 30 percent of vote share may go to India’s regional parties. The unnamed British research group, according to the website, has made its prediction based on receiving inputs from 20,500 respondents spread over 24 states in India that included 52% male and 48% female.
In 2014, the Congress had won just 44 seats even though it later went on to win several parliamentary by-elections, taking its tally to close to 50. If the prediction of the US-based website holds true, this will be a huge turnaround in electoral fortunes for the Congress.
India is currently going through its crucial Lok Sabha polls in seven phases. Three phases of polling have taken place with the counting scheduled for 23 May.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shifted his focus to nationalism and religious polarisation even though he had won the last parliamentary polls promising development and ending corruption. His critics say that one of the reasons why Modi has shifted his focus to nationalism and religious polarisation is to divert people’s attention from his government’s failure in the last five years.
Meanwhile, the publication of the latest survey by the American website has evoked angry response from certain quarters. Psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh wrote on Twitter, “This is precisely what I was arguing when ECI was pressing for such rules. Today’s media landscape is digital and global, and can not be controlled by whatsoever means, unless you are Chinese Govt. Best approach is self-regulation and open discussion. Rest is useless bureaucracy.”
Another tweet by Deshmukh read, “An American website quotes a survey done by an “unknown” UK Survey company publishing a “Prediction Poll” right in the mid of the election cycle. Going viral. Completely exposes the limitations of ECI guidelines. Now wait for “others” to do the same.”
This is precisely what I was arguing when ECI was pressing for such rules. Today's media landscape is digital and global, and can not be controlled by whatsoever means, unless you are Chinese Govt. Best approach is self-regulation and open discussion. Rest is useless bureaucracy. https://t.co/rwZyC7n4H4
— Yashwant Deshmukh 🇮🇳 (@YRDeshmukh) April 27, 2019
The Election Commission has banned the broadcast of any pre-poll survey or exit poll results until after the final phase of election has taken place.