The ensuing elections are all set to change the caste equations in both the legislative assemblies of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
For the first time after indepdence, the Assemblies are likely to witness a drop in number of legislators belonging to the Reddy and Kamma castes. The major political parties have already expressed their plans to field more number of SCs, STs and BCs in the next elections. Telangana might witness an increase in the number of Muslim candidates compared to previous elections. There would be no surprise if the parties decide to ignore the Muslims as the community has never formed a pressure group to force the parties to give adequate number of tickets.
However, some analysts say that the 2009 General Elections were also fought primarily on the basis of castes. While Congress tried to strengthen the Reddys, TDP tried to bring Kammas to power and Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam tried to empower the Kapus.
Of 294 Congress candidates, 88 were Reddys. The Grand Alliance comprising TDP, TRS and the Left Parties nominated 66 Reddys as their candidates and the Praja Rajyam gave tickets to 42 Reddys. Compared to a total of 48 Muslims candidates fielded by all parties including the BJP, the three major parties together fielded 196 Reddys.
The TDP-led Grand Alliance has fielded largeset number of Kammas. It selected 46 Kammas as against 16 by the Congress and 11 by the Praja Rajyam. It means that the three parties together fielded 73 Kammas compared to just 48 Muslims.
Similarly, the Praja Rajyam has nominated 37 Kapus, as against 14 by the Congress and 8 by the Grand Alliance. This takes the total number of Kapus from major parties in the fray to 59 which is still more than Muslims.
Similarly, of 294 assembly seats, 65 were reserved for SCs & STs. In the 229 general seats, as many as 2,940 candidates were in the fray. Of them, only 216 were Muslims including 48 candidates representing major political parties. There was not a single Muslim candidate in 133 assembly seats and therefore, only 96 seats had Muslim candidates. Though there were 65 seats having Muslim population of more than 10 per cent, the parties have nominated very few candidates. Chirajneevi’s Praja Rajyam nominated 14 candidates followed by Congress which nominated 11 Muslims. TDP and MIM nominated 7 candidates each while the BJP nominated 4 candidates. The CPI and CPI (M) have nominated just one Muslim candidate each. There were seven districts including Adilabad and Warangal where the major political parties completely skipped nominating Muslim candidates.
The undivided Andhra Pradesh had initially the domination of Brahmins. Later, Reddys emerged as the most powerful group. After NTR’s entry into politics in 1983, the Kammas started dominating politics. In the last one decade, Kapus tried hard to register their political presence and in 2014 elections, it is the turn of BCs and Dalits to prove their political might.
Irrespective of which party comes to power in Telangana, it is for certain that the new State will have a Dalit Chief Minister. The fire triggered by KCR’s promise has now turned into a blaze with the Congress announcing that a Dalit would be made the first Chief Minister of Telangana. Now other party could dare to counter this. However, TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu announced that a Backward Classes leader would be the TDP’s Chief Ministerial candidate. Therefore, it will be a fight for the top post between SCs and BCs in Telangana.
The division has empowered the upper castes in Seemandhra region and therefore, the Reddys and Kammas would try hard to capture the post of Chief Minister in the residual State of Andhra Pradesh.
Under the given circumstances, the major loser will be the Muslim community if it fails to learn to dominate the changing political circumstances. The Muslim leadership need to think beyond Hyderabad, if they wish to survive in the fresh and aggressive wave of caste politics in both Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.