London, January 25: Osama bin Laden took the rare step on Sunday of claiming credit for a failed al Qaeda attack, but the apparent admission of weakness contained an implicit message of defiance: We can and will carry out more strikes.
That boast — in a bin Laden audio statement featuring a poetic taunting of U.S. President Barack Obama — might have been dismissed as bluster by many analysts a year or so ago.
Bin Laden and his associates are under increasing pressure from U.S. drone attacks on the mountainous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan where they are believed to be hiding.
They face uncertainty from talk that their Afghan Taliban hosts are considering possible negotiations with the Afghan government, a move that might deprive al Qaeda of a vital ally.
Globally al Qaeda is a diminished force as an inspirational ideology, partly because suicide attacks on civilians in Iraq and elsewhere have alienated many once sympathetic to its cause.
But the December 25 attack on a U.S. airliner claimed by bin Laden, and a string of arrests of suspected pro-al Qaeda militants in the United States in 2009, shows al Qaeda’s brand of extremism retains global currency for a dangerous and committed few.
Analysts suspect bin Laden has hit upon a strategy of smaller, more easily-organized attacks, supported by globally-scattered hubs of sympathizers and financiers.
Analysts say that while al Qaeda may no longer be capable of the complex team-based operations epitomized by September 11, it is willing and able to field individuals radicalized at a distance and deployed in “armies of one” against high-profile targets.
Individuals with limited amounts of direct support, training or financing from decentralized units of al Qaeda or allied groups have shown they are able to pose a real security threat.
Examples include an August 27 2009 attempted assassination of a senior Saudi security official by a suicide bomber, a December 29 Afghanistan suicide bombing that killed seven CIA employees and the November 5 killing of 13 at a U.S. army base by a gunman linked to a Yemen-based preacher.
Even a botched operation can be a success. The August 27 attempted assassination was a propaganda coup for al Qaeda’s Yemen-based affiliate, known as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
The admiration generated by the attack in jihadist circles encouraged recruits to go to Yemen and join the group from countries in the immediate region, counter-terrorism source say.
And the failed December 25, combined with the Western intelligence failures that lay behind it, caused significant short-term disruption to air travel around the world.
Longer-term the security concerns generated by the attack are likely to impose greater spending on security and related technology by the travel and hospitality industry. anxiety and fear, a prime aim of all terrorist groups.
And memories of the fear and anxiety it generated could extract a reputational toll on some airlines and destinations for some time to come.
Bonuses for al Qaeda included the infighting the attack sparked within the U.S. intelligence community and reports of strains between the United States and some Western allies over allegations of blockages in intelligence sharing.
Other points
— The statement — confirmed to Reuters as bin Laden’s voice by Arabs who know him — shows bin Laden was alive at the time of the December 25 attack.
— The statement suggests Bin Laden perceives Obama as wounded by lack of progress in the Arab-Israeli peace process, and that his personal popularity among Arabs may crumble.
— The statement reminds al Qaeda audience that al Qaeda’s purported core grievance is U.S. support for Israel.
— This may be the first time al Qaeda’s core leadership has has taken responsibility for a failed attack.
— Confirms close relationship between al Qaeda central based in south Asia and offshoot al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
— It contains what many will see as a new admission of al Qaeda responsibility for September 11. While al Qaeda members have spoken repeatedly about how they planned the attacks, vocal communities of skeptics around the world say they do not believe these accounts.
——–Agencies