Beirut, April 28: Recent allegations by Israel that Hezbollah is stockpiling missiles are related to wider issues in the Middle East, notably the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, analysts say.
They say that by claiming that the Lebanese group has acquired Scud missiles, Israel may be seeking to divert attention from its illegal settlements policy in occupied Palestinian territories of East Jerusalem and the West Bank.
It could also be laying the groundwork for a potential strike against Hezbollah, according to several analysts said.
“My fear is that by the beginning of next year, if the sanctions (against Iran) have not brought out results, the situation will be very different,” said Paul Salem, head of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Centre.
“I fear that one way to contain Iran if sanctions and negotiations don’t work would be to hit its allies outside Iran,” he added.
“And the biggest ally outside Iran is Hezbollah.”
The Scud accusations were made earlier this month by Israeli President Shimon Peres who claimed Syria was supplying the group with the missiles.
Syria has denied the charges.
Washington, which has been seeking a rapprochement with Damascus, on Tuesday further fed the controversy by accusing Iran and Syria of arming Hezbollah with increasingly sophisticated rockets and missiles.
Analysts noted that the Scud issue strikes a chord in Israel and the United States as it brings back memories of now executed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s use of the missiles in the 1991 Gulf war.
“I think the Scud issue took on such proportion because of the symbolic power and impact of the word Scud, which basically speaks to Israeli and US public opinion because these weapons evoke Saddam,” said Peter Harling, project director for Iraq, Lebanon and Syria at the International Crisis Group.
Harling lamented Washington’s stance in the controversy saying it only served to inflame an already tense situation.
“What I find regrettable is that the United States is taking sides in this war of words … when it should be adopting a more comprehensive approach … to defuse the rhetoric and start discussing some rules of the game,” he said.
Salem added that the Scud accusations could also be part of an effort to convince Syria that its alliance with Iran was a strategic liability.
“Israel, the United States and others want Syria to move away from Iran and want it to reduce its support for Hezbollah,” he said.
“But what concerns me is that this type of escalation in the past has led to air raids, has sometimes led to war, so one cannot take it lightly.”
Franck Mermier, of the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and former head of the French Middle East Institute (IFPO) in Beirut, said the missiles issue allows Israel to put peace talks with the Palestinians on the back burner while pushing forward with its settlements policy.
“The (Scud) claim allows the peace negotiations to be pushed back, especially in the light of US pressure, albeit soft, on Israel concerning this issue,” Mermier said.
“So Israel can push forth with its settlements, its expansionist policy while at the same time putting pressure on Syria and Lebanon.”
–Agencies